Transcript:
The Inside Story: The Future of Taiwan
Episode 148 – June 13, 2024
Show Open:
This week on the Inside Story:
A new president in Taiwan inherits a relationship with China that has kept the island’s residents on edge for decades.
Dueling visions for the future of Asia, as the U.S. and China meet in Singapore.
And a special report highlighting the unique culture of Taiwan’s frontline: the Kinmen Islands...from knives to tanks on display, Kinmen’s residents see themselves as a pathway towards easing historical tensions with Beijing.
Now on the Inside Story: The Future of Taiwan
The Inside Story:
ELIZABETH LEE, VOA Correspondent:
Hello and welcome to The Inside Story. I’m Elizabeth Lee.
At its closest, the self-governed island of Taiwan is about 130 kilometers away from China. While democratic Taiwan and communist China are connected through business, trade and family ties, they are still worlds apart. Relations have been tense, especially now, as a new president takes office in Taipei. The island’s residents have mixed views on how well the new administration will handle Taipei’s relationship with Beijing – which could have global ripple effects. VOA’s William Yang reports in these two stories from Taipei.
WILLIAM YANG, VOA Correspondent:
The future of Taiwan, at least for the next four years, largely depends on the actions of the island’ new president, Lai Ching-te. Residents here have a few expectations:
Yang Shih-sheng, Student:
I think the Lai administration will continue the same foreign policy agenda that focuses on maintaining close ties with the United States and Japan.
Betty Hsiao, Journalist:
I believe leaders and people in Taiwan and China all want both sides of the Taiwan Strait to maintain the status quo for the next four years.
WILLIAM YANG:
On the day he was elected as Taiwan’s next president, Lai laid out his Beijing policy.
Lai Ching-te, President-Elect of Taiwan:
As long as there is dignity and parity to two sides of the strait, Taiwan is very willing to engage in dialogue with China and willing to exchange, to cooperate for the benefit of the people on both sides of the strait to create a free and prosperous environment.
WILLIAM YANG:
But Beijing has labeled Lai with strong words says geopolitical analyst, Amanda Hsiao.
Amanda Hsiao, International Crisis Group:
They called Lai a secessionist, a golden grandchild of Taiwanese independence.
WILLIAM YANG:
Beijing claims Taiwan, a self-governed democracy, as part of China. Relations between Beijing and Taipei soured since Taiwan’s then president, Tsai Ing-wen came to power eight years ago. Beijing has been increasing military pressure during her presidency. Lai is from the same party as Tsai and is expected to face more pressure from China during his term in office.
During Lai’s presidency, he’ll also have to manage China’s exploitation of political divisions within Taiwan.
Amanda Hsiao, International Crisis Group:
Beijing does see greater political division in Taiwan as useful to its ultimate goal of unification. It is a form of political interference.
WILLIAM YANG:
Hsiao says the U.S. may play a role in Beijing’s relationship with Taiwan’s new president.
Amanda Hsiao, International Crisis Group:
Beijing's approach, it seems at least for now, is really to lean on Washington to keep the incoming Lai administration on a more moderate course.
WILLIAM YANG:
Taiwan will also continue to look to the U.S. to help bolster itself against China by strengthening relations with Washington. A bipartisan delegation of former U.S. officials attended Lai’s inauguration. Since 2022, President Tsai has met with two separate U.S. House Speakers says political scientist Lev Nachman.
Lev Nachman, National Changchi University:
She most certainly is going to be remembered as the president under which the U.S.-Taiwan relationship reached this new level of rock-solid status.
WILLIAM YANG:
But whether the “rock-solid status” continues may depend on who is elected the next president of the United States, says Nachman.
Lev Nachman, National Changchi University:
What Joe Biden represents is a level of predictability and certainty. If Donald Trump is elected, that brings in uncertainty.
WILLIAM YANG:
President Lai is also expected to deepen engagements with European nations — as he begins to navigate the increasingly divided global landscape as the new president of Taiwan.
The beginning of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s tenure has brought new uncertainties for the democratically governed island – including its relations with Communist China. Will it escalate to war?
Chen Hsiu-Hui, Housewife:
I’m very concerned about the situation across the Taiwan Strait.
Hung Yu-Chia, Student:
Theoretically, a war probably won’t break out across the Taiwan Strait, but the risk of miscalculation seems inevitable. As a result, we should remain cautious when handling relations with China.
WILLIAM YANG:
Beijing sees self-governed Taiwan as a part of China and wants reunification. In recent years, China has been increasing military pressure on Taiwan. To defend itself, former President Tsai Ing-wen's administration put in place a series of defense measures including extending required military service. Beginning this year, some young men will have to serve one year instead of the previous length of four months.
James Ruan, Student:
I think there will certainly be some complaints because extending the military service from four months to one year may disrupt some people’s life plans.
WILLIAM YANG:
During his inauguration speech, Lai vowed to continue strengthening Taiwan’s defenses.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan President:
Taiwan makes no concessions on democracy and freedom. Peace is the only option and prosperity is our goal for long-term peace and stability.
WILLIAM YANG:
Following Lai’s speech, China responded with strong words.
Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry:
Taiwan independence is a dead end. No matter under what guise or what banner, pursuing Taiwan independence and secession is doomed to fail.
WILLIAM YANG:
Lai’s presidency falls within a key time fame for China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has set 2027 as the year the Chinese military needs to have an invasion plan in place, according to U.S. intelligence officials. The date also marks the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army.
Among Taiwan’s residents, opinions differ over the level of the China threat.
Chen Hsiu-Hui, Housewife:
We are at a disadvantage and our situation is very dangerous, so we need to protect ourselves.
Neal Yang, Student:
I think as long as both sides of the Taiwan Strait don’t do anything provocative, cross-strait relations probably won’t worsen.
WILLIAM YANG:
President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the U.S. will defend Taiwan if China invades. But views are mixed whether that will really happen.
Tsai Dong Chuan, Retiree:
The U.S. will definitely protect Taiwan. They are not just protecting Taiwanese people but also protecting democracy, freedom, and human rights around the world.
Neal Yang, Student:
I think Taiwan shouldn’t expect that the U.S. will definitely offer military support to Taiwan when China launches an invasion. I think it’s best for Taiwan to avoid initiating a conflicting with the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
WILLIAM YANG:
In his new role, President Lai is expected to continue to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and build bridges with like-minded democracies to counter China.
William Yang, VOA News, Taipei.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Instead of depending on foreign nations or Taiwan’s military to defend the island, some residents are acting now. They are learning how to defend themselves and to protect those around them by taking defense classes.
I visited a couple of these classes and have this report.
At this airsoft gun club, while these students are learning to handle a gun that shoots plastic pellets, Tony Lu has shot with real bullets and experienced war.
Tony Lu, Fought in Ukraine:
I bought a plane ticket and went to Ukraine. I didn’t tell anyone.
ELIZABETH LEE:
These relics -- the reminders of the three months Lu spent fighting in Ukraine.
Tony Lu, Fought in Ukraine:
Since the Russia-Ukraine war, there have been more and more of these civil defense classes.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Some people in Taiwan worry, if Russia can attack Ukraine, then China could attack Taiwan. Some people take action by learning how to shoot.
Others take an interest in using ham radios to communicate.
In this classroom at Kuma Academy, students learn how to recognize disinformation, how to survive if basic infrastructure is disrupted and how to save lives with first aid skills. Most of the students have been women.
Marco Ho, Kuma Academy Co-Founder:
It’s almost like a team of moms. Their motivation to come to class is, they want to know, in extraordinary situations, including war, what can they do, how can they protect their family.”
ELIZABETH LEE:
The history between Taiwan and China stems from the Chinese civil war that ended more than 70 years ago. The Communists won and the ruling Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan a part of China, even though Taiwan now has its own democratic government. China attacking the island has always been a possibility, but after so many years, apathy has set in for some people according to Kuma Academy co-founder, Marco Ho.
Marco Ho, Kuma Academy Co-Founder:
Often there is a thinking, something that did not happen yesterday, also did not happen today. Then tomorrow, it also won’t happen. This thinking is very dangerous.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Many here say the China threat has changed ever since Chinese leader Xi Jinping came to power.
Marco Ho, Kuma Academy Co-Founder:
He wants to be the one to set the international standards.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Another reason to take note of the China threat…
Watoto Lou, Civil Defense Student:
I think the biggest reason is technology. There’s confusion in all the information. Because the information is very confusing, you don’t know if it’s going to be a military assault or information warfare.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Lu doubts that the people of Taiwan can protect the island.
Tony Lu, Fought in Ukraine:
I’m not very optimistic. People need to strengthen their ability to defend Taiwan. Life has been too peaceful.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Instead of trying to calculate the risk of war, Ho says, Taiwan’s residents need to face the reality that war is possible and should prepare for it.
Taiwan’s government looks to the U.S. as one of its main allies against the threat of China. U.S. and Chinese defense officials have always offered competing visions for the Asian continent. And at a recent Shangri-La security summit in Singapore, those differing visions were on full display, even as Washington and Beijing committed to keep talking. VOA's Bill Gallo has this story from Seoul, South Korea.
BILL GALLO, VOA Correspondent:
This was Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin’s first face-to-face meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Dong Jun,
High-level talks that China had rejected until recently.
Dong Jun, Chinese Defense Minister:
We have always been open to exchanges and cooperation, but this requires both sides to meet each other halfway.
BILL GALLO:
Some differences appeared irreconcilable at this summit, and Chinese officials went on the attack.
Jing Jianfeng, Chinese Lieutenant General:
Facts show that the U.S. is the biggest corrupter of the international order, the biggest obstacle to progress in global governance, and the greatest challenge to regional peace and stability.
BILL GALLO:
In his comments, Austin insisted war is avoidable and dialogue is necessary.
Lloyd Austin, U.S. Defense Secretary:
And every conversation is not going to be a happy conversation. But it is important that we continue to talk to each other.
BILL GALLO:
There is much to talk about, including China’s military threats against democratic Taiwan.
And in the disputed South China Sea, Chinese ships have harassed much smaller Philippine vessels – raising concerns that the U.S.-Philippine defense treaty could be triggered.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Philippines President:
If a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act that is, I think, very, very close to what we define as an act of war and therefore we will respond accordingly.
BILL GALLO:
Those hotspots make it even more important for the U.S. and China to keep talking, many regional analysts say.
Lim Tai Wei, Professor at the National University of Singapore:
The temperatures are cooling down, although [we should not be] under the illusion that the problems will be resolved because these are complex problems. But the priority now is to turn down the temperature, to create the right messages for greater confidence building measures as well as more dialogues and outreach.
BILL GALLO:
At least for now, China is agreeing to continue those meetings.
Bill Gallo. VOA News. Seoul, South Korea.
ELIZABETH LEE:
As the U.S. China and Taiwan work on keeping tensions to a simmer, the residents on Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands say they could play a unique role in easing tensions. Known for its sorghum wine, wind-lion gods, and knives crafted from old mortar shells, the Kinmen islands sit just a few kilometers from China’s southeastern coast. For years, the Kinmen islands have served as Taiwan’s frontline against China. But Kinmen’s residents today would rather see themselves as a bridge of peace. Here is their story.
On the main island of the Kinmen archipelago, beaches and buildings still carry the scars of war…
Wu Tseng-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
I've been a blacksmith for 50 years. The materials we use are mostly the artillery shells left behind from back in the day.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Blacksmith and Kinmen native Wu Tseng-Dong has been turning artifacts from Kinmen’s violent past into household tools and knives.
Wu Tseng-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
Sometimes you’ll find artillery shells when walking out in the fields. Sometimes, when digging at a construction site, they’ll dig up shells. With one artillery shell, if we’re talking about knives for chopping food, we can make 60 knives.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The shells are remnants of the Chinese Civil War, as are the tensions from that conflict, which have been lingering on the islands long after it ended nearly 75 years ago.
Lu Genjenn, Kinmen Museum of History and Folklore:
Since 1949, the KMT military came to Kinmen. This also became the base for the KMT military to retake mainland China.
ELIZABETH LEE:
In 1949, Mao Zedong established the communist-ruled People’s Republic of China. The Kuomintang, or KMT, government retreated to Taiwan as the Republic of China.
On August 23, 1958, Communist troops launched a surprise artillery attack on Kinmen. KMT forces on the island returned fire. The artillery battle ended up lasting 44 days.
University lecturer and retired army officer Honor Ni was only 3 years old but remembers those days vividly.
Honor Ni, Kinmen Native:
The artillery fire came suddenly, so people who lived in the hills would dig holes in the ground and hide in them. // There was no airflow in the holes, and they smelled of human waste. The air was bad. One day, I couldn’t stand it anymore. I ran out of the hole, and my parents and relatives all ran out after me. As they were running to catch me, an artillery shell struck the hole. So, I actually saved them.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Eventually, the Communist government and the KMT agreed to shell each other on alternate days. This continued into the 1970s.
Honor Ni, Kinmen Native:
We all learned since childhood how far away from us the artillery shells have landed just from the sound. "Pa, suuu" means it’s far away; "pa su" — it is probably nearby. We would immediately go hide and take cover.
Wu Tseng-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
A lot of artillery shells didn’t explode, because their purpose was to deliver propaganda leaflets. We would skim their contents. They would say how beautiful the scenery was in mainland China, how life was good. It’s pretty much the same as the leaflets we sent over there.
ELIZABETH LEE:
The shelling ended when the U.S. switched diplomatic recognition from the government of Taiwan to that of Communist China. But another weapon from the propaganda war lives on — as a modern-day tourist attraction.
Built in 1967, the Beishan Broadcasting Wall blared anti-Communist propaganda into China until the late 1970s. The music and messages from these 48 loudspeakers —about freedom and democracy — could be heard as far as 25 kilometers away.
Honor Ni, Kinmen Native:
At the time, most of the people living on the island were military personnel. So, everyone really respected the military from a young age. I wanted to test into military school. Schoolmates went from class to class to recruit to serve the country — meaning to reunify the country. The reunification is not China unifying with us. It’s us, the government in Taiwan, taking back China.
ELIZABETH LEE:
But Chinese leader Xi Jinping defines unification differently. In his 2024 New Year speech, he said Taiwan and China will “surely be reunified.”
Tensions in these waters started to flare up again in mid-February, when two Chinese fishermen were killed when their boat capsized. The men had been running from Taiwan's coast guard, which said the boat had trespassed in waters near Kinmen. Taiwan and China have both increased patrols in the area.
While some Taiwan residents have been fearing and even preparing for China to attack, those in Kinmen share a different view.
Wu Tseng-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
Having grown up in Kinmen, we’re used to it [the threat of an attack]. If we were afraid, we would have all fled to Taiwan during the August 23 Artillery War.
Wu Ching-hsuan, University Student:
Kinmen’s citizens are not worried about the safety issue at all, because our roots come from over there. No one will harm their own siblings.
ELIZABETH LEE:
University student Wu Ching-hsuan says many Kinmen residents feel affection toward China. They identify themselves as Chinese or Kinmenese. Many of them support the KMT party, which favors closer ties with China. Kinmen even imports water from China through a pipeline.
Wu Tseng-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
We originally are Chinese. Back in the day, Kinmen and Xiamen were all part of the Fujian province. So, before the two sides of the strait cut ties, the two sides were one society.
ELIZABETH LEE:
And like many of the residents on the island, Kinmen native Ouyang Cheng-yi voted for Lai Ching-te of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, in January. Lai won the presidency with just over 40 percent of the vote.
Ouyang Cheng-yi, Kinmen Native:
He’s more reliable and also more trustworthy.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Beijing does not favor DPP supporters who want to distance Taiwan from China, but Ouyang and many KMT supporters in Kinmen are not worried about Chinese pushback.
Ouyang Cheng-yi, Kinmen Native:
If they had wanted to attack, they would have attacked us already. // Kinmen residents aren't afraid of China attacking us.
Honor Ni, Kinmen Native:
If they attack, they’ll go for Taiwan. So Kinmen is the safest place.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Ni says the key to peace is dialogue.
Honor Ni, Kinmen Native:
The two sides of the strait should communicate on the basis of universal values: freedoms, democracy, human rights, the rule of law. We are not talking about unification now, but everyone should start talking about it because there has to be a beginning. It’s just like doing business. Let’s talk. It could take 50 years or 100 years. And if we communicate, there won’t be a fight.
In the 5,000 years of Chinese history, dynasties have changed too many times. That’s not important. What’s important is that we need to return to our roots.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Ni teaches young students about their roots through free weekend classes about history and current events.
Lu Genjenn, Kinmen Museum of History and Folklore:
We from the island hope through the blood that links us, there can be even more development and opportunities between the two sides of the strait.
Wu Tseung-Dong, Kinmen Blacksmith:
I feel if there is communication and contact, it will be most beneficial for peace between the two sides of the strait.
ELIZABETH LEE:
As tensions simmer between Beijing and Taipei, the islanders hope Kinmen can play a unique role, not as a battlefield, but as a bridge of peace.
ELIZABETH LEE:
Now for our weekly look at the U.S. election season. An often-cited rule of politics: foreign policy plans don’t win elections. But wars in the Middle East and Europe – and the U.S.-China rivalry – will likely remain key issues regardless of who wins the White House. In this next report, White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara examines the foreign policy priorities of candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA, VOA White House Bureau Chief:
Picture the year 2025. A permanent cease-fire in Gaza could still be out of reach.
A war of attrition still simmering in Ukraine.
And China continues to be a threat.
Whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins the presidency, these challenges will remain.
Biden’s second-term foreign policy will be based on the same principles as his first — global leadership and multilateralism.
President Joe Biden:
The United States will compete and will compete vigorously, and lead with our values and our strength. We'll stand up for our allies and our friends.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Plus, a focus on an area the administration believes it needs to improve on.
Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor:
A major initiative with Congress aimed at truly delivering on the promise of unlocking resources for the developing world.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
That means more U.S. investments for debt relief programs, multilateral development bank reforms, and various infrastructure projects worldwide.
The goal, to push back on China’s global development initiatives by supporting various corridor projects around the world, such as the Lobito Corridor that connects Zambia, Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola.
Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor:
We can not only build out a transportation capacity to help ensure that we have the inputs for our clean energy supply chain, but also unlock Africa's vast agricultural potential by getting goods to market, and also unlock a digital transformation across that area.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
If Trump wins, there won’t be as much focus on international development.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Candidate:
Make America richer and safer and stronger and prouder and more beautiful than ever before. I think we have a final shot at it.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Although Trump's catchphrase is America First, it does not mean his foreign policy is isolationist.
Rachel Rizzo, Atlantic Council:
Mercantilist, sure. Transactionalist, yes. But I think the most interesting part of his foreign policy is just the degree to which his vision of the tools of U.S. power be used in a different way.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Unwavering support for Israel, conditional aid to Ukraine and a strong rivalry with China. These are foreign policy principles proposed for a second term, by the Trump-affiliated think tank America First Policy Institute.
Chad Wolf, America First Policy Institute:
Those are three areas that any incoming America First administration is going to have to deal with and it's going to have to put that ‘peace through strength’ approach to the test.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
While we don’t know who will win in November, we do know that foreign policy won’t be the determining factor.
Polls suggest most Americans are more concerned with inflation, the economy, immigration and crime than with U.S. engagements abroad.
Patsy Widakuswara, VOA News, Washington.
ELIZABETH LEE:
That’s all for now. Thanks for watching.
For the latest news you can log on to VOA news dot com. Follow us on Instagram and Facebook at VOA News.
Follow me for more VOA content on X @ eleeTV1 and Catch up on past episodes at our free streaming service, VOA Plus.
I’m Elizabeth Lee. We will see you next week, for The Inside Story.
###
