The Chinese Communist Party will hold its most important meeting starting Sunday. And with the party exerting exclusive control over the world's most populous nation and second-biggest economy, it's a big deal.
At the party's national congress, held every five years, officials will be appointed to the top echelons of the party and the country.
It will also provide clues to how China will deal with a host of domestic and international challenges in the next five years, from COVID-19 and a slowing economy to difficult relations with the United States, which has become increasingly worried about China's growing economic and geopolitical influence.
Decisions made at the roughly weeklong meeting will have a huge impact not only on China's 1.4 billion people but on the rest of the world.
Why this year's party congress is especially important
The 20th Communist Party congress will almost certainly see the election of leader Xi Jinping to a third term as general secretary of the Communist Party while remaining China's president and chairman of the Central Military Commission.
That will make him the first Chinese leader since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 to serve for more than two terms and the most powerful leader since Mao and his successor Deng Xiaoping — a clear sign that he has consolidated power since his 2012 appointment and that the country is returning to having a strong leader in power rather than passing the torch among the party's top brass.
"My personal belief is [Xi] will continue to be paramount leader with different combinations of positions for all the way up to 2035," said Victor Gao, vice president of the Chinese think tank Center for China and Globalization and a former English interpreter for Deng.
"He will be only 83 years old then, and when Deng Xiaoping was 83 years old, it was in 1987, and in 1987, Deng Xiaoping was in the prime of his career. He was very acute … he made the best decisions at the time."
If receiving a third term isn't remarkable enough, the congress may also give Xi the title "renmin lingxiu," or "people's leader," a title previously given only to Mao.
This would be "very significant," according to Chen Gang, an assistant director and senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute.
"He would reach the political status of Mao, which would make him push through policy implementation more easily," Chen said.
What else will happen at the party congress
The Chinese Communist Party has more than 96 million members.
At the party congress, some 2,300 delegates who represent them will meet in Beijing to select the more than 200 members of the party's top decision-making body, the Central Committee, as well as the 25 members of its Politburo and, most importantly, the seven members of the Politburo's Standing Committee — the highest tier of party leadership.
The selections, however, are widely believed to have been decided in advance.
At the end of the weeklong congress, the appointments will be announced, and the Standing Committee's members will come out on stage, in order of ranking, to be photographed.
Some analysts predict the Central Committee, Politburo and Standing Committee will undergo major reshuffles. Gao expects new faces to fill as many as five of the seven positions in the Standing Committee, up to two-thirds of the 25 posts in the Politburo, and up to half of the roughly 200 seats in the Central Committee.
What will the personnel reshuffle say about Xi?
The new lineup is expected to include many of Xi's political allies.
"Xi will emerge from the congress more powerful than ever by placing more loyalists in the party's apex bodies, the Politburo and its Standing Committee," Chen said. "More than half [of the seven Standing Committee members] will be closely connected to him."
Premier Li Keqiang has announced he will retire in March.
Analysts have speculated about who might replace him, including prominent Xi allies. These include Li Qiang, the Shanghai party secretary; Vice Premier Liu He, an economist and the top negotiator in the U.S.-China trade war talks; Chen Min'er, party boss of Chongqing municipality; and Cai Qi, Beijing's party secretary.
Also tipped as likely candidates are Wang Yang, head of China's top advisory body and a reputed economic reformer, and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who is considered a close ally of Xi's predecessor, former President Hu Jintao.
If Hu Chunhua or Wang Yang becomes premier, analysts say, it would show Xi has had to compromise, perhaps because of frustration over his strict COVID-19 lockdowns, which have hurt economic growth and sparked rare public outcry in Shanghai and elsewhere.
But Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's former chief Asia economist and now an independent consultant, says it is unimportant who becomes premier because Xi "has reasserted party control everywhere. … The party boss has the final say." Xie added that the State Council, which is led by the premier, "has become a bit like a consulting agency."
Will the party congress provide clues on how China will deal with challenges?
This party congress is the first since China has been hit with a host of challenges including the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S.-China trade war, the highest tensions in decades in the Taiwan Strait, and the Ukraine war.
At the same time, China is facing slower economic growth, exacerbated by its strict COVID-19 lockdowns and a property bubble that has exposed serious flaws in its economy. Other drags on growth include an aging population and low birth rate.
Analysts say that while the party will try to fix these problems, including by providing bailouts for some property developers, it will continue to focus on alleviating poverty and building what Xi has called common prosperity — a redistribution of wealth.
"I don't think China wants to have high growth anymore. … It's to make the country strong, throw money into developing technology and break through the U.S. embargo" on semiconductor and other tech exports, Xie said.
The Congress will also likely reaffirm China's stated commitment to free trade, a market economy and globalization.
While the congress typically focuses on domestic issues, the policy directions it adopts may also provide clues about how China will deal with growing mutual distrust between Beijing and the United States, especially over Taiwan.
Will there be any major policy changes?
No major policy changes are expected, according to analysts. But many expect a move away from China's strict zero-COVID policy as early as next spring and toward tolerating the virus as long as cases are not high. Gao predicted a policy in which isolated lockdowns close off single buildings rather than entire districts or cities.
