Security analysts in Nigeria are expressing alarm after a surge in attacks by terror groups in the country’s north near the border with Niger. The deterioration of relations between Abuja and Niamey following Niger's July 2023 coup has disrupted joint military patrols, creating opportunities for armed groups to intensify incursions and attacks.
Last Friday's killing of 20 soldiers, including a commanding officer, at a military base in the remote town of Malam Fatori is among the latest attacks by terror groups.
Malam Fatori is located near Nigeria's border with Niger. Suspected fighters from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) arrived in trucks outfitted with guns and overpowered Nigerian troops in a coordinated assault.
That attack took place three weeks after a similar raid on a military base in nearby Damboa, in Borno state, where six soldiers were killed.
On Sunday, Nigeria's defense authorities announced that 22 soldiers died during military operations against militants in Borno state between Jan. 16 and 25.
They also said troops killed nearly 80 militants during those operations.
Kabiru Adamu, an analyst with Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, explained the growing challenge.
"If the Nigerian military does not take steps to fortify those locations, we'd see attacks around that proximity increase. It appears to be that the objective of that particular attack is to weaken the response capability of the Nigerian military,” Adamu said. “The fact that they did not fortify that place, the fact that they did not quickly replenish what was lost — we've seen consistently where churches are being burnt, military bases are being attacked."
The terror threat is not limited to northeastern Nigeria.
In the northwest, a new militant group called Lakurawa is wreaking havoc in remote communities and crossing the border into Niger.
Nigerian authorities first raised the alarm about the group in November, stating it has ties to jihadist factions in Mali and Niger, and had embedded itself in communities along the Nigeria-Niger border for years, marrying local women and recruiting young men.
Strained relations between Nigeria and Niger following the July 2023 coup have disrupted joint security operations, allowing groups like ISWAP and Lakurawa to expand their activities.
Nigeria is already engaged in a protracted counterinsurgency war, and Adamu said the situation is becoming increasingly complex.
"Lakurawa is a radicalized group and so the same counterterrorism approach that Nigeria is implementing in the northeast is what it will implement in the northwest,” Adamu said. “But what this means is that there's a new theater of conflict — the northeast and the northwest. Given the fact that Nigerian military resources are strained, it poses a challenge."
Security analyst Senator Iroegbu said the government must adopt a more proactive and comprehensive approach to addressing the insecurity.
"The Sahel region, for two years or more, has been regarded as the epicenter of terrorism and Nigeria shares a lot of borders with the core Sahelian countries. So it's definitely a challenge now with the diplomatic spat that is affecting other areas of security and intelligence,” Iroegbu said. “I'm not surprised about their emergence. In past years, there were reports about the growing linkage between bandits and what is happening in the northwest as terrorist organizations, and I don't think the authorities made any concrete effort."
Last week, a federal court in Nigeria declared the Islamist Lakurawa group a terrorist organization, allowing the military to use maximum force against the group.
