As Switzerland prepares to host peace talks on Russia's war on Ukraine, it has formally invited China to join the effort that it is spearheading.
Speaking with reporters Wednesday as he wrapped up a two-day visit to China's capital, Switzerland's foreign minister, Ignazio Cassis, said he was interested in getting Beijing's help because "China has great relations with Russia."
"I hope that China, that is very open to contribute, can 'give us a hand' towards peace," Cassis said.
Last month, Switzerland agreed to hold the peace summit at the request of Ukraine to discuss the 10-point peace plan put forward by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The date and venue of the summit have yet to be identified. Ukraine underscored the importance of China's participation when it recently extended an invitation to Beijing, personally asking Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend. Russia has rejected Zelenskyy's peace plan, which envisages, among other measures, a full withdrawal of Russian troops.
Asked how Beijing responded to the invitation, Cassis said that since "it's a very high-level conference, we can't expect an immediate answer."
And what kind of role Beijing could play, if any, is unclear.
Just three weeks before the war began almost two years ago, China's Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of what they called a "no limits" partnership.
Since then, China has not criticized Russia's aggression or joined international sanctions against Moscow. Instead, it has repeatedly called on both sides to pursue peace negotiations.
Last week, when China's newly appointed defense minister, Dong Jun, had a video call with Russia's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, he offered China's full support "on the Ukrainian issue" despite pressure from the U.S. and Europe.
However, after that remark, the Foreign Ministry's spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, stressed at a briefing that China's "position has not changed." Wang also expressed hope that "all parties will strive to cool down the tensions and create favorable conditions for the political settlement of the crisis."
China's interests
Some analysts believe that there are strong reasons for China to participate in the talks.
In an interview with VOA's Ukranian service, Robert Zoellick — a former World Bank president and U.S. deputy secretary of State — said there are both economic and geopolitical reasons why Russia's war on Ukraine is not in China's interests.
Zoellick said the war undermines food and energy prices, that are important for the Chinese economy, and it also strengthens U.S. alliances, including NATO, which China does not see as beneficial.
Lastly, China might have underestimated "the shock of this invasion" in a region where China wants to build relations.
China's relations with the West remain a "delicate dance," argues Peter Engelke, deputy director of the Scowcroft Initiative at the Washington research organization the Atlantic Council, in the interview with VOA.
Beijing continues "to press for geopolitical advantage vis-a-vis the United States, whether it comes to Taiwan, the Middle East or Ukraine, while at the same time knowing that it has to curry favor with the United States and with the Europeans because it also has interests on the cooperative side not limited to but including its need to trade."
Others disagree. Economic integration does not turn authoritarians into a constructive force, argued participants of the House Select Committee on the CCP at hearings on January 30.
"Rather than turning their swords into plowshares as they integrated with the world economy, the CCP and Putin's Russia have bought more swords," said Raja Krishnamoorthy, a Democrat from Illinois. Chairman Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican, warned at the same hearings that China is emerging as a leader of authoritarian alliance.
"What was once a smattering of rogue authoritarians causing trouble, today looks a whole lot like an axis led by the Chinese Communist Party. Xi, Putin, Ayatollah Khamenei, Kim Jong Un, and Hamas," Gallagher said in an opening statement.
Private conversation
Even if China decides to play a role in peacemaking in Ukraine, observers believe one should not expect Beijing to publicly condemn the war.
Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the U.S. research group the Council on Foreign Relations, said in the interview with VOA Mandarin that the most likely scenario is that Xi and Putin have a private conversation and Beijing tells Putin that "enough has been had," and it is time to "end this situation and stop the destruction and killing caused by the war in Ukraine around the world."
In an interview with VOA's Ukranian service, Zoellick said there might be a situation where Xi would quietly tell Putin that it is time to end the war.
One example of China's influence on Moscow was the position Beijing took in response to Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons in the early days of its full-scale war on Ukraine.
At that time China suggested that nuclear weapons are a no-no. "That's a good thing," Zoellick said.
VOA's Mandarin Service also contributed to this report.
