Thailand has seen another year of political controversy, but the economy continues to be the country's focus for 2025.
The installation of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as Thailand's 31st prime minister in August means the country is once again led by a member of the Shinawatra family.
But questions remain as to what influence her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, will have, and what kind of policies the ruling Pheu Thai Party will implement.
The return of the Shinawatra family at the head of government comes after Srettha Thavisin was removed as prime minister role over an ethics violation.
This paved the way for the Pheu Thai party to pick Paetongtarn, whom parliament then elected, making her the youngest Thai prime minister in history.
"I can handle the pressure," she said at the time.
But almost immediately, experts questioned how independent she would be.
Paetongtarn is the daughter of Thaksin, a highly divisive but influential figure in Thai politics. He founded the Pheu Thai Party and has been prime minister twice. But after charges of corruption, he fled Thailand in 2008 and spent 15 years in self-exile. He returned in 2023.
"How can we be sure that Paetongtarn, as prime minister, answers to the Thai public and not her father?" Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told VOA in August.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist and professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, believes the elder Thaksin's role is clear.
"After 15 years in exile, he is now like an overseeing chairman running the country with his daughter Paetongtarn as chief executive and prime minister," he told VOA.
"2024 was another wasteful year following a much-anticipated election that installed Srettha as prime minister, who got the boot for uncompelling reasons," Thitinan said.
Pheu Thai came to power after Thailand's election winner, the Move Forward Party, was blocked from leading government in 2023.
The Move Forward Party was dissolved in August after the Constitutional Court ruled the party's campaign pledges leading up to the election were aimed at toppling the monarchy.
It is against the law to criticize the monarchy, which is Thailand's top institution.
With Move Forward gone, the new year also will be a challenge for the People's Party, which formed in 2024 as Move Forward's successor. The People's Party has made similar promises as its predecessors, such as the amendment to Thailand's royal defamation law. Political observers will be watching the progression of this newly formed opposition party leading up to Thailand's next elections in 2027.
But following nine years of rule by a military government, and the recent political turmoil, the policies of the ruling Pheu Thai Party must now be Thailand's focus, Thitinan said.
"Despite shortcomings behind a heavily doctored government formation, 2025 could see a semblance of stability amid anti-government noises that allow the Thai economy and Thailand's international standing to perk up to a point after years of mismanagement under a military-based regime."
Thailand's economy, the second largest in Southeast Asia, will again be scrutinized. Its annual growth is slower than many of its regional neighbors.
Initial forecasts put Thailand with a GDP growth of 3.0% for 2024, but its new revised growth is 2.7%, according to the finance ministry.
Some of Thailand's main economic industries, like manufacturing, are struggling with thousands of factories closed in recent years.
Kiatanantha Lounkaew, an economics lecturer at the Thammasat University in Bangkok, outlined the economic woes.
"Our economy has been operating with the same structure since the year 2000, and that is why our competitiveness has been eroding. We can't compete in the municipal [foreign direct investments] compared to our regional partners," he told VOA earlier in 2024.
The economic issues have even led to Thaksin weighing in on the subject. The former prime minister laid out a 14-point strategy to fix the country's economy, ranging from reforming the public debt and the agriculture sector, to empowering tourism, launching entertainment complexes and using locally made products.
Thitinan said Thailand must look toward digitalization.
"The dial has moved on; they have to be talking about much more digitalization, digital economy, AI, machine learning, education reform," he told VOA in August.
One of the key economic policies has been the launch of the controversial Digital Wallet program, which provides a one-time handout of about $280 in digital money to approximate 50 million citizens to spend locally to stimulate the economy.
Although experts have doubted the positive impact the program may have, it's a policy that Paetongtarn has continued from Srettha.
"In terms of policies, the Paetongtarn government feels like a faster-paced version of Srettha's. Both are laser-focused on the economy, but Paetongtarn clearly has the advantage of a bigger team and more resources, thanks to her role as Pheu Thai Party leader and Thaksin's daughter," Tita Sanglee, associate fellow at the ISEAS Institute, told VOA.
"This seems to have allowed her government to push Pheu Thai's initiatives more actively, things like cash handouts, a three-year debt suspension for farmers, discussions on casino legalization, and efforts to boost tourism and attract foreign investments," she said.
But analysts say Thailand's changing social policies means the country will have a landmark year after parliament already passed the marriage equality legislation, which is set to become law on January 24.
"Even social policies like the marriage equality legislation and the proposal to grant permanent residency, nationality to stateless individuals has clear economic implications. The former reinforces Thailand's position as a leader in the LGBTQ inclusivity, making it more appealing as a destination," Tita added.
Foreign tourism has long been a key pillar of the economy, and the new year is expected to see landmark results.
At its peak in 2019, tourism accounted for 11.5% of the country's overall GDP.
Thailand welcomed 34 million visitors for 2024, but for 2025 a record-breaking 40 million arrivals is forecast. Relaxing visa entry rules and launching new visa initiatives are aimed at making it easier for international arrivals to visit the country.
Whatever the outcome, Thailand's new year directions will be influenced by Thaksin, experts say. Now 75 years old, once an enemy of Thailand's royal and conservative establishments, Thaksin has made his way back into Thailand's politics, albeit unofficially.
"2025 could see a reset in motion as Thaksin is allowed to run Thailand from the back with Paetongtarn as figurehead with the royalist establishment's uneasy approval, due to fears of reform-minded People's Party has succeeded the dissolved Move Forward," Thitinan said.
"Thaksin's involvement in Thailand's foreign relations is something I'd pay close attention to,” said Tita. “He's got personal ties to many regional leaders, and that could fuel concerns about conflicts of interest. With all the geopolitical turbulence and growing criticism of Thailand's foreign policy, any interference from Thaksin matters."
