Election officials in Indian-administered Kashmir are hailing a historically high turnout in elections completed this week as evidence of a commitment to democracy that bodes well for the region’s future.
More than 69% of people in Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir, or J&K, cast their ballots in Tuesday’s third round of legislative elections, the first local electoral battle in a decade.
Round one took place September 18 with a voter turnout of 61.38%, and phase two was September 25 with a voter turnout of 57.31%, according to election officials.
Conducted in the three phases, the polling for 40 assembly constituencies — 24 in the Jammu division and 16 in the Kashmir valley — resulted in an overall voter turnout of over 63% in the disputed Himalayan region, organizers said.
Wire news reports say results are expected next week.
“These elections have witnessed a significant increase in voter turnout in areas infamous for militancy and boycotting democratic processes,” read a statement issued by the Election Commission of India.
“J&K assembly elections have marked a significant deepening of democracy, which will echo in the pages of history and continue to inspire a democratic spirit of the region for years to come,” said the prepared statement quoting Rajiv Kumar, India’s top elections official.
Northern Kashmir’s electoral landscape has traditionally been dominated by two rival political groups, the National Conference, or NC, and Peoples Democratic Party, or PDP. But the 2013 founding of the Awami Ittehad Party, or AIP, which is led by Indian parliamentarian Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as “Engineer Rashid,” could alter the electoral battlefield.
“It appears the contest will be between the NC and PDP. However, the situation may change as Engineer Rashid has attracted a massive crowd since his release from Tihar Jail,” Pattan resident Tanveer Najar told VOA. “It’s possible that the AIP could upset the NC and PDP.”
University of Kashmir political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba told VOA all phases of the 2024 local elections saw the largest voter turnout since 1989’s regional armed insurgency against Indian rule.
“People came out in relatively large numbers due to changing political dynamics after special status revocation,” said Baba, referring to India’s 2019 decision to strip the Himalayan region of its semiautonomous status. “Moreover, there has been no representation for the people during the last six years, so they voted.”
Umer Nazir, a resident of the Sumbal area of Bandipora district in northern Kashmir, said he thought the central government had discriminated against the Muslim majority region because of an anti-Muslim agenda.
“We want our own people to lead us,” Nazir told VOA.
“Our properties, our children and much more have been taken from us,” he added. “To put an end to this torture and seek some relief, I and my family decided to vote.”
Political analyst and podcaster Muzamil Maqbool told VOA that election campaigning in recent weeks focused on topics such as the restoration of special status for the area, possible statehood and the release of political prisoners held by India.
No 'kingmaker'
But, he warned, voting results may not yield major changes. These “local assembly elections differ from parliamentary elections,” he said, noting that candidates such as Engineer Rashid may not fare as well regionally as their supporters hoped, even though they campaigned impressively.
"Engineer Rashid may win a few seats but he won’t be a kingmaker or a king as he has claimed in several recent interviews," Maqbool said. "The support for Engineer Rashid in the recent parliamentary elections was largely based on emotional factors. Many voters believed that their votes would help secure his release from Tihar Jail after spending nearly six years."
Maqbool also said residents were typically thinking about improving their communities when they cast ballots in the local elections.
"People here have understood the importance of voting [now] in these [local assembly] elections, where they could choose a genuine representative, so their rights, especially land rights, and jobs will be safeguarded," Maqbool said.
Meanwhile, regional political parties, along with the main Indian opposition political group, the Indian National Congress, or INC, have said they will continue to lobby the government led by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, to restore statehood for J&K.
“If statehood is not restored, we have no choice but to approach the Supreme Court. We are confident we will win this battle,” said former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah while revealing the manifesto of his party days before the election.
Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi also vowed to protest inside and outside Parliament to pressure the BJP to improve governance in J&K.
“If they don’t restore statehood, we will storm the well of both houses and take to the streets,” Gandhi said during a recent rally in Srinagar. “This is the first time in Indian history that a state has been downgraded to a union territory. This was done to allow governance by outsiders.”
Wasim Nabi contributed to this report.
