For years, China has sought to raise its profile by offering to broker conflicts and disputes in the Middle East, but analysts say Beijing’s limited involvement in the Gaza war shows China continues to put its self-interests first.
In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine, Yun Sun, China Program director at the Stimson Center in Washington said that China’s role in brokering the Saudi-Iran rapprochement last year raised hopes it could chart a way to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Instead, she said, “China has not delivered on that success.”
Sun and other analysts point to China’s huge dependence on Gulf crude oil for its economy, and with 53% of its energy needs coming from the region, Beijing sees Middle East stability as paramount. “China has long positioned itself as a customer and a client of Middle Eastern oil,” a role that gives it power, Sun said; however, “without the burden for China to provide peace.”
Hesham Alghannam heads the Strategic Studies and National Security Programs at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Speaking recently at an online Carnegie Endowment for International Peace seminar, he praised China’s shared views with Arab states, including promoting a cease-fire early in the Gaza conflict. Yet, Alghannam added that Chinese political involvement in the Middle East “remains limited.”
“The Middle East is not a fundamental interest of China, and no one, I think, should exaggerate the Chinese power and role in the Middle East," he said. "Similar to the U.S., China lacks a comprehensive security strategy that addressed the main security challenges in the region, such as ending the conflict in Gaza. We did not see from China what we would expect. Thus far, China did not take any action that would, for instance, end the war really seriously in Gaza.”
Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with London’s Chatham House Middle East program, said in a report that China pressured Iran over Houthi attacks in the Red Sea “but only to protect its own ships.” He adds that “Beijing will not use its limited influence to support the U.S. agenda,” in seeking to protect global commercial shipping in the region.
“China’s efforts were focused exclusively on extracting guarantees to protect China’s direct interests. There is no evidence to suggest Beijing was in any way interested in putting its credibility on the line to push for a full de-escalation in the Red Sea,” Aboudouh wrote.
SEE ALSO: Where Is China in the Red Sea Crisis?He points out that China’s threats resulted in the Houthis’ granting Chinese and Russian ships immunity. China has adopted a “low-risk, wait-and-see approach because it can’t afford other options,” Aboudouh said. “They don’t want to be forced to adopt a dramatic policy shift and jump into the foray because a Chinese ship has been sunk or seriously damaged.”
Professor Degang Sun directs Middle East studies at China’s Fudan University in Shanghai. He told an online Chatham House panel that China sees the rise of non-state actors [like the Houthis] as a direct threat to its interests in the Middle East as it is its largest investment and trading partner.
“Therefore, China says the U.S. cannot leave the Middle East. The Middle East needs the U.S. because it can be a stabilized force for China and the rest of the world,” he said.
He adds that Beijing “wants to send a signal to the U.S. that China is not a U.S. rival, but a U.S. partner in Middle Eastern governance,” and that the rise of nonstate actors in the Mideast region “is the outcome of a governance deficit.”
Sun believes the U.S. and China can fill this deficit through cooperation in Middle Eastern security affairs.