Mozambique's ruling party candidate in this month's elections, who is almost certain to win, is likely to continue relying on Rwanda's military and European money to secure its huge gas fields in a region beset by Islamist violence, analysts say.
Campaigning under the slogan "let's get to work," ex-high school teacher Daniel Chapo, 47, is expected to oversee the building of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects currently on hold because of insecurity in northern Cabo Delgado province.
To achieve this, he must lean heavily on Rwanda's military, brought in by current President Felipe Nyusi in 2021 to bolster struggling local troops.
"The Rwandans are undeniably competent," said Tertius Jacobs, lead analyst for Mozambique at risk consultancy Focus Group. "Mozambique ... has little to no better alternative."
Rwandan units, including special forces, are tasked with securing territory around the Afungi site where TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil plan LNG projects.
Nyusi's introducing Chapo to Rwandan president Paul Kagame in June was a nod to continuity, Jacobs said, amid civil society reports from Maputo that Rwandan security forces could build a new camp in Quissanga district to buffer against insurgent activity from the north, thereby enhancing security during elections.
Rwandan forces are shouldering larger responsibilities after regional southern African soldiers withdrew in July this year. A spokesperson did not respond to an emailed request for comment.
Recent attacks by suspected Islamists include a February ambush that killed more than 20 Mozambican soldiers, helping displace tens of thousands of people in one of the worst skirmishes since 2021, when TotalEnergies halted its $20 billion project.
ExxonMobil's neighboring project is also on hold, frustrating Mozambique's ambitions to become a major gas exporter.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne has said work could restart this year if security continues to improve, although funding is another concern.
ExxonMobil is expected to make a final investment decision by end-2025.
"Rwanda will remain the key. They have thousands of troops there to protect the LNG sites," said Robert Besseling, CEO of consultancy Pangea-Risk.
Already a major funder, the EU is mulling further support to Rwandan efforts to quell the insurgency, a spokesperson said.
"The fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado is a common fight," she said.